More Listings, Fewer Pending Sales: Rochester’s Fall Housing Market
Rochester buyers have more homes to consider than they did in the last market update. At the same time, fewer properties are pending or under contract. It is a small but telling change in a market that has spent years defined by scarce inventory and intense competition.
The timing matters. The previous snapshot came just after Labor Day, before many fall listings had reached the market. Still, the new numbers raise a useful question: will the additional inventory bring buyers back, or will higher borrowing costs keep activity uneven?
In their latest Rochester real estate update, Mark Siwiec and Corey Moran discuss what they are seeing on the ground, why a low asking price can be a risky strategy, and where buyers may find opportunity as the year winds down.
Rochester Inventory Is Up, While Pending Homes Are Down
At the time of recording, Mark and Corey shared the following comparison with their previous market update:
| Market measure | Previous update | Latest snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe County active single-family listings | 519 | 605 | +86 (+16.6%) |
| Six-county active listings | 990 | 1,136 | +146 (+14.7%) |
| Monroe County pending and under-contract homes | 1,199 | 1,143 | −56 (−4.7%) |
| Six-county pending and under-contract homes | 1,882 | 1,789 | −93 (−4.9%) |
These are the market snapshots cited in the video, taken at different points in time. They are not a measure of closed sales or a seasonally adjusted trend.
The increase in active listings is welcome news for buyers who have had limited options. But the decline in pending and under-contract homes suggests that more supply has not immediately translated into more transactions. Some of that difference may reflect the timing of the two snapshots. It is too early to treat it as proof of a lasting market shift.
Mark and Corey are also seeing homes sit longer than they did a few months ago. That does not mean every property is struggling. It means the gap between a well-positioned listing and one that misses the mark may be growing.
Mortgage Rates Are Adding Pressure
Affordability remains central to this conversation. During the recording, Mark and Corey discussed mortgage quotes around 7.19%, compared with 6.89% when they last spoke about the market. Those were point-in-time quotes, and an individual buyer’s rate will depend on the loan and borrower.
For a consistent national benchmark, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03% as of September 24, up from 6.76% on September 10. The figures quoted in the video and the weekly survey are measured differently, but both reflect the upward pressure buyers have been feeling. Freddie Mac
The conversation was recorded before the Federal Reserve announced its September decision. The Fed subsequently raised its target federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The August Consumer Price Index had risen 3.4% over the prior year. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, and a rate increase does not translate into an identical change in a mortgage quote. For Rochester buyers and sellers, the practical issue is the monthly cost of the next home and how that cost affects decisions about moving. Monetary Policy
Is Pricing Below Expectations Still Working for Sellers?
One of the most revealing parts of the discussion is about listing strategy. In recent years, some Rochester sellers have priced well below the amount they hope to receive, aiming to draw strong attention and create competition. When several buyers engage, offers give the seller room to negotiate.
Mark and Corey caution that the same approach carries more risk in a less predictable market. If the expected offers do not arrive quickly, the seller is left with a public asking price below their desired outcome. Raising the price afterward can also make a listing harder for buyers to interpret.
That does not make one pricing method right for every home. The right strategy depends on the property’s condition, location, likely buyer pool, comparable sales, and the seller’s flexibility. What matters is understanding the downside before committing to a strategy, particularly when the first week on the market can shape how buyers perceive a listing.
Presentation remains part of that equation. Buyers facing higher monthly payments may look more closely at condition and value. A home should enter the market with a clear price, strong photography, thoughtful preparation, and a plan for adjusting if the initial response falls short.
What This Means for Rochester Buyers
More active listings can give buyers room to compare homes instead of rushing toward the first workable option. Properties that have been available longer may also create an opening for a more measured conversation about price or terms.
Cash buyers are in a particularly flexible position because a change in mortgage rates does not alter their immediate financing cost. Mark and Corey point to them as potential beneficiaries of this moment, whether they are purchasing an investment property or a home to live in.
Financed buyers may find opportunities too, but the payment still needs to work. A useful starting point is to determine a comfortable monthly budget, review current financing terms, and evaluate each property on its own merits. An increase in inventory does not mean every well-presented home will lose its competitive edge.
What This Means for Rochester Sellers
The new inventory numbers show that homeowners are bringing more properties to market after Labor Day. Sellers who need to move can still find buyers, but they should be realistic about the attention a home is likely to receive at its chosen price.
Sellers with more flexibility face a different decision. They can weigh what a sale would accomplish now against the uncertainty of waiting for different market conditions. No one can know with confidence whether rates or buyer demand will be more favorable a few months from now.
The most useful preparation is specific: understand the likely sale range for your home, the work needed before listing, the probable time on market, and the cost of your next move. Those details make the decision clearer than a broad prediction about where the entire Rochester market is headed.
A Market That Rewards a Clear Plan
Rochester has gained inventory since the previous update, while the number of pending homes has edged lower. That combination creates openings for some buyers and raises the stakes for sellers choosing a price and launch strategy. It is a developing picture, not a verdict on the whole fall market.
If you are planning to buy or sell, the most important question is how current conditions apply to the neighborhood, price range, and property in front of you. Explore homes for sale in Rochester, learn about Elysian Homes’ approach to selling, or contact our team to discuss your next move.