Last September, with nine minutes and eighteen seconds left in the season opener, it was pretty clear that the fans had given up. The Buffalo Bills were trailing the Baltimore Ravens by fifteen points and, sensing defeat, Highmark Stadium began to empty of its diehard fans. Going into the season, the Bills were widely viewed as a top AFC team with Super Bowl expectations. Such a disappointing defeat in the first game of the season defied fan expectations and their somber, almost funereal shuffling toward the exits belied their traditional, cultish enthusiasm.
Then, over a seven-minute span, the Bills scored sixteen unanswered points and, miraculously, won. The fans had called the game before it was over and, in the postgame presser, Josh Allen reminded them, “Have faith.” In other words, he intoned, don’t jump to premature conclusions.
Recently, Cotality, a respected property-data and real-estate analytics company, reported that property values in Rochester had fallen 1.8% between February and May. For those of us working in the field every day, that conclusion seemed difficult to reconcile with what we were seeing.
Finding a moment to crunch some data, it seems that things were slower this past winter. February contract activity was down approximately 10% year over year and, inexplicably, the spring market remained dormant until mid-May. Only then did it reawaken, with exuberance. June activity was up roughly 6% and, by the end of July, total February-through-July contract volume was nearly identical to the same period last year, with 3,591 accepted contracts in 2025 versus 3,560 this year. Stated differently, what initially seemed to be a softening real estate market appears to have been a spring market that was delayed rather than diminished.
And what happened to prices? Based on the transactions that have closed, median sale prices increased steadily after February. That does not contradict Cotality’s report, which accurately described the narrow period it examined. The more recent MLS data simply reveals how the market recovered after May. Still, having just criticized fans for leaving the stadium early, it would be foolish to commit the same offense. Too many transactions have yet to close. Prices appear to have increased, but the final score is not yet in.
Beyond the number of accepted contracts, there were other similarities between last year’s market and this one. Median time to contract was seven days in both years. A whopping 87% of successful listings secured buyers within fourteen days of listing. And, the percentage taking longer than 30 days did not materially increase.
So, if the number of buyers barely changed and successful homes are moving just as quickly, why are some properties sitting?
Because buyers have become much more discerning.
Last month, I described what seemed to be an incipient change in buyer behavior, best described as “discerning.” No longer desperate to purchase a home at any cost and with more inventory from which to choose, buyers have become pragmatic and intentional. The market has become bifurcated, with buyers gravitating toward one of two distinct categories.
Sought-after homes are:
• Located in a great neighborhood
• In a great school district
• Well-maintained and updated throughout
• Beautifully appointed or staged
• Priced appropriately
I’ve actually spent a good amount of time in the past month speaking to potential clients who have occupied most of our meeting time trying to convince me that their home is worth far more than the market will bear. The arguments run the gamut from “it has a great layout” to “it’s conveniently located.” My favorite has to do with the beautiful memories that were created in the residence. While that may be true, nobody’s really interested in spending an additional $75,000 reminiscing about your aunt’s Swedish meatballs. These same sellers refuse to believe that the market has changed and are expecting premium pricing for the owner’s DIY family room paneling. These sellers represent the second, less desirable, cohort of homes on the market.
The greatest difference between these two categories of home has to do with financial outcome, and the results are striking. Homes that sell within seven days enjoy a median sale price 23% above final asking. Those properties that are on the market for 15 to 30 days are, more or less, selling at asking price. Meanwhile, homes taking more than 30 days sell approximately 4%, or nearly $10,000, below the final asking price. (One caution: this compares sale price with the final list price, not the original asking price. If these homes had prior reductions, the true cost of missing the market was greater.)
The lesson for sellers is fairly simple: the first seven to fourteen days matter enormously. Once a house begins to linger, buyer perception changes, urgency fades, and negotiating leverage shifts. Rochester remains a strong seller’s market, but it is now a market that rewards some properties lavishly while largely ignoring others.
For the past six years, the rulebook was set. Today, those rules are changing. Preparing your home for sale is no longer optional. If you’re a buyer, are you paying attention and scrutinizing opportunity? For the first time in more than six years, it’s out there. In short, are you prepared for game time? The answer may determine whether you score or fumble.
Prefer to listen?