Rochester NY - Market Update - February 2026
by: Mark Siwiec

Rochester’s housing market—and the national market behind it—isn’t distorted because buyers are reckless or sellers are greedy. It’s constrained because we don’t have enough homes. We’re short supply, and locally that shows up in predictable ways: bidding wars, affordability pressure, and sellers holding historically low mortgage rates with little incentive to move. I see this weekly. First-time buyers in their 20s and 30s—hardworking, dual-income, financially responsible—continually losing. Sellers watching equity rise while deciding not to list because they can’t replace what they’d sell. Prices aren’t elevated because demand is irrational. They’re elevated because inventory is tight. That’s why President Donald Trump’s January 29th comments were so revealing. During a Cabinet meeting, he said: “I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.” In one sentence, he crystallized the central contradiction of current housing policy. Trump is trying to have his cake and eat it too—except the cake costs $400,000 and nobody under 40 can afford a slice. He later dismissed affordability altogether, calling it a “fake word.” Affordability isn’t ideology. It’s arithmetic—the gap between wages and prices, inventory and demand. Ignoring it doesn’t make the problem disappear; it simply makes the American Dream less accessible.

Who Benefits—and Who Waits

First-time buyers are now, on average, 40 years old and account for roughly one-fifth of home purchases—the lowest share on record. Many have opted out—not because they lack discipline or ambition, but because the ladder that once existed has been pulled further out of reach. This isn’t an argument against homeownership gains. Rising equity has created stability and wealth for millions. The issue is access. Scarcity has rewarded those already inside the system while quietly excluding those still trying to enter it. Housing has become the most visible expression of a K-shaped economy—one path rising, the other narrowing. If you already own a home, limited supply has been a gift. If you don’t, it’s been a wall.

Demand-Side Theater 

They increase purchasing power in a market where inventory is fixed. It’s like trying to solve traffic by making cars cheaper instead of building more roads.

What Would Actually Help

These policies do one thing well. They add homes.

A Rare Area of Agreement

Congress appears to understand this. The ROAD to Housing Act passed the Senate Banking Committee unanimously, tying federal transportation and community development funding to local zoning reform. It’s an elegant solution: use existing federal leverage to incentivize the removal of the very barriers that prevent new housing from being built. No massive new spending. No federal mandates overriding local control. Just incentives aligned with outcomes. In an otherwise polarized environment, housing is one of the few issues both capable of bipartisan cooperation and providing a hopeful solution for millions.

The Choice Ahead

This debate isn’t about whether we know what to do. We do. Economists, builders, and housing professionals largely agree: we need more supply. The real question is whether we’ll act—or continue protecting those who already benefited while telling the next generation to wait longer, stretch further, or give up entirely. I didn’t succeed because I was smarter than today’s buyers. I succeeded because the door was open when I arrived. Whether we choose to hand them the keys is a policy decision.