Striking Matches in the Wind: Navigating Today’s Unpredictable Market
I was mesmerized. It was 1976 and I clearly remember reading Jack London’s “To Build a Fire” in the bedroom of my family’s home in Cheektowaga. A solitary traveler—just a man and his dog—treks through the Yukon wilderness in dangerously cold weather. A cruel and random misstep and, suddenly, he slips into a creek and quickly emerges, knowing that he only has a moment to start a fire or he will die. He strikes a match. A breeze snuffs it out. He tries again. Same result. Only on the third attempt—when the air stills just enough—does the match catch, the flame hold, and the kindling roars to life. Tragically, emotional relief and, ultimately, salvation, are stolen from the traveler when melting snow from an overhead branch collapses onto the fire, extinguishing it completely.
The same unsettling unpredictability that causes one match to expire while another burns is beginning to define today’s real estate market. One home is listed for sale and draws ten private showings, twenty open house guests, and sparks a six-offer bidding war. Five days later, a nearly identical home across the street hits the market at the same price—and is met with silence. Fewer showings. Fewer attendees. Maybe one offer. Maybe none.
That’s the mercurial nature of today’s market. It’s not just unpredictable—it’s mood-driven, volatile, and erratic. Sometimes you enjoy the warmth of a roaring blaze. Other times, you’re left shivering in the cold.
Boots on the Ground: The Market’s Mood Swings
There is no hard data that helps to quantify or define this nascent reality. However, a quick perusal of Roc Real Estate Agents, a private Facebook Group, nicely encapsulates the uncertainty-
- All of these ‘slow showings’ posts are scaring me. Anyone get multiple offers this week? Or super busy showings??
- LOW LOW LOW showings. Does anyone have buyers who want HFL schools?:) This really is an awesome house with…
Several weeks ago, when posts like this first started appearing online, it was jarring. Increasingly, they’re becoming common.
Clearly, something has changed but what, exactly, is different? Most successful agents would tell you that they still have a roster of buyers interested in purchasing a home. Yet, the urgency— the robust intent that defined buyer behavior for so long— has diminished. Uncertainty about the strength and the direction of the US economy, shifting tariff policies, high interest rates, and elevated sales prices are dampening buyer enthusiasm. More confounding is the capricious, arrhythmic nature of the market…
I currently have a gorgeous home listed for sale on the Eastside. It has a wonderful cul de sac location, spectacular yard, meticulous attention to maintenance and upkeep, and a beautiful interior. There was a similar house that sold around the corner with six competing offers just a couple of weeks ago. The success of that sale, coupled with our sophisticated and aggressive marketing campaign, gave us every reason to believe that our listing would perform just as well. Shockingly, we’ve had only two private showings. Where did all of the buyers go? And what happened to those five anxious buyers who just two weeks ago were desperate to prevail?
Is this the start of a local market correction? Absolutely not. The fundamentals still show that there are far more buyers than there are sellers. Monroe County is still shy thousands of new housing units and, until local government begins greenlighting new development, it will remain a sellers’ market. We will, however, have to deal with a market dictated by vacillating consumer confidence. One that, like the US stock market, moves at whiplash speed. Eventually, the gale winds rocking the ship of the US economy will quell and, concomitantly, consumers will resume their hunt. What is needed is clear direction and resolution of an unpredictable tariff policy. The question, obviously, is “When?”
Moving Forward: Strategy in an Unsteady Market
Given the inchoate nature of today’s market, it’s difficult to suggest the best path forward for those unfortunate sellers caught in a momentary downdraft. One reasonable course of action would be to pull the house from the market and re-list at that point in the future when it seems that conditions are more propitious. Another possibility would be to simply revert back to real estate as it was conducted pre-COVID; sit tight and wait for the right buyer to come along. It’s a manner of conducting business that defined real estate sales for decades and it might very well make sense now. Regardless of the strategy, be certain that you’re starting with a solid foundation— a house that is ready for market, priced appropriately, and represented by a qualified and successful agent.
The bottom line? In this market, brokers and buyers alike are striking matches in the wind—some flare brilliantly while others flicker and die. But the fire, eventually, always catches. Sometimes you just need to be persistent and remain patient.