There’s a scene in The Godfather where Michael Corleone walks into a deserted hospital and hears a record playing on loop—repetitive, eerie, and impossible to ignore. It’s a fitting metaphor for the refrain realtors have repeated over the past five years: “This is insane! There’s never been a better market for sellers!”
And, hard as it is to believe, they’re right. There has never been a better time to sell a home in Monroe County. At the moment, just 346 homes are available for sale—200 of these are priced under $200,000—while hundreds of motivated buyers are actively searching. In March 2017, the number was 1,550, according to the Federal Reserve. That supply-demand mismatch is part of the reason Zillow projects a 5.9% increase in Rochester home values this year—placing us sixth in the nation. Not quite volcanic, but still impressive. And unlike markets that have seen price pullbacks, we continue to see growth. Last year, the median sales price rose 10.1% year-over-year while sellers averaged 117% of asking price.
So, when will this change?
The short answer: not anytime soon.
And the longer answer? Like the future Don, standing in the hospital hallway, the same unresolved notes keep playing, looping through the housing market over and over again.
What’s Holding Inventory Hostage?
- Let’s start with homeownership tenure. People simply aren’t moving as often. The average American now stays in their home for 10.5 years, up from just six years in the early 2000s. That’s a big reason listings are scarce. But there is an eventual release valve here: as more baby boomers hit their 70s and 80s, we’ll start to see movement—downsizing, moving in with family, or transitioning to senior housing. Even a slow, steady uptick in listings from this group could ease pressure by 2027 or 2028.
- Aging in place is also part of the story. Thanks to improved healthcare, better home accessibility, and financial stability, older homeowners can stay put longer. But that’s only part of the equation. If we want to unlock that housing stock, we need to build alternatives that are actually appealing—low-maintenance townhomes, single-floor condos, walkable communities. Even a single large retirement village could have a cascading impact—freeing up dozens of family homes for the next generation of buyers. These aren’t just good ideas. They’re also necessary.
- Then there’s mortgage rate lock-in. Many homeowners purchased or refinanced into 2–3% mortgage rates and have little incentive to trade those for today’s 6–7% range. And while rate cuts once seemed likely, today’s economic outlook is anything but clear. Between inflationary pressure, strong employment, and unpredictable global markets, the near-term future is a complicated mix of uncertainty and volatility. Until the picture sharpens, it’s hard to forecast a major shift.
- Another factor flying under the radar is equity. Nearly 40% of Rochester homeowners are mortgage-free. That number is far above the national average, which hovers closer to 30%, meaning Rochester has even more “stuck” inventory than many metro areas. Without financial pressure, there’s little urgency to sell. Most of these homeowners will only move when family or lifestyle demands it. It’s a slow-moving dynamic—but one that could quietly contribute to increased inventory over time.
- And of course, there’s the most complex challenge—the issue of supply. Rochester has underbuilt since the Great Recession—issuing about 18,000 fewer permits than needed. Add to that outdated zoning laws which, in many towns, don’t allow duplexes or ADUs by right. Finally, local resistance to new development is another factor adding to gridlock. We need bold political leadership willing to prioritize the greater good over the loudest voices. NIMBYism is stifling growth and, even if our elected officials act decisively, it could take a decade or more to see relief.
- Construction costs don’t help. The expense to prepare a single building lot can exceed $50,000—and tariffs on steel and lumber aren’t making it any easier. Labor shortages continue. The way forward is going to require creative coordination: tax incentives, public-private partnerships, and perhaps even philanthropic investment aimed at expanding supply in a way that serves the whole community.
Change Is Coming… Slowly
In the end, change won’t come from one dramatic shift—it will emerge through a combination of smaller, steady movements: declining interest rates, loosening zoning laws, more seniors choosing to downsize, targeted tax incentives, etc. Together, they point toward a future where Rochester’s housing market may once again find its balance. It won’t happen tomorrow, nor in 2026 but, perhaps if we’re lucky, things will begin to ameliorate in the next five years.
Until then, that same dissonant record will keep playing—unsettling, repetitive, and impossible to ignore.